How is it possible that the advisor and the client we discussed earlier could have been made to feel comfortable in choosing a payout of 8.5 percent or even 6 percent? Is it possible that we can be fooled, too? Sure, because our experiences of the recent past can substantially influence our judgments and create a bias that is too optimistic. Following this thought further, I wondered whether the average annual return for the ten-year period just prior to 1968 could have influenced an advisor’s projections and the retiree’s expectations. My research established that the answer was a resounding yes. From 1957 until 1967, the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 12.81 percent. Was that a surprise! In addition to the average return blunder, which is forward looking, I discovered the average return bias, which is backward looking. It goes to show that the advisor and investor could become victims of the times, the investor losing her retirement and the advisor losing an account and maybe his job.
Right from the first draw, the deck was stacked against the 1968 retiree. Not only had the average return assumption not produced results, the past decade became a poor predictor of actual year-to-year returns. Even if good data and a computer were used to generate a hypothetical illustration, that information simply was useless, if not dangerous. The power of the computer to show various scenarios is still somewhat meaningful, but a computer cannot predict the timing of returns. Advisors using such illustrations can mislead clients if they do not caution them about the probability that their assumption can be dramatically off.
Medicare is a federal and state health insurance program primarily for individuals who are sixty-five years of age or older. Full or partial cover-age is offered to those who are disabled before age sixty-five. There are two parts to the government’s insurance benefits.
• Medicare Part A is hospital insurance. Most people do not pay a monthly Part A premium because they or their spouse have forty or more quarters of Medicare-covered employment. This portion covers inpatient hospital costs in a benefit period; you may pay a deductible and coinsurance charges. Part A also covers skilled nursing home facil-ity care up to 100 days after hospitalization in a benefit period with a coinsurance charge. Home care and hospice services are also available. If you exceed 100 days, you must begin paying the costs of the nurs-ing home stay. In states as large and diverse as New York the cost can range widely. The insurance industry reported that the average cost per day in Chautauqua County (western New York) is $144, while it is $251 per day in Suffolk County to the east. With such a high price to pay, many people consider buying long-term care insurance to cover the possibility of longer, extended periods. If one cannot afford it, Med-icaid begins to kick in to pay the bill once people meet the require-ments to qualify. Medicaid is essentially welfare, and to qualify one must have few assets.
• Medicare Part B is medical insurance. This portion of the plan covers physician’s services, inpatient and outpatient medical and surgical serv-ices, physical and speech therapy, diagnostic tests, durable medical equipment, and such. Monthly premiums may be deducted from one’s Social Security benefit. In 2002, the premium is $54, adjusted annually. There are possible 20 percent copayments due on some Medicare-approved charges. Since some medical costs are only partially cov-ered—for example, you would pay 20 percent of the cost of durable medical equipment—or, as in the case of prescriptions and vision and dental care, are not covered at all, you may need to keep a nest egg set aside for these expenses. On the other hand, you may find coverage for these things by buying insurance plans from a company in your area.
If you have a business and want to promote it in cyber world, you will need a help of search engine. How could? Because the most important of popularity sites in cyber world is determined with its position in the search engine. Most of internet user will ask helps from popular search engine to look for on some keyword. Right now we now that the leader of search engine is Google because Google already success making an image for everyone that search engine is Google.
So what can we get from Google popularity, is there any benefit that can be used for our business? The answer is absolutely much benefit from search engine! If we can reach the top position in the search engine, base on some keyword that already set before, our business will get popularity. Like ranknoodle.com with its phrase could help us to make easier when looking for something.
So what should we do right now is prepare the best keyword for our business and place our site into some famous search engines, then start to make some promotion using social community, forum or placing advertising in other sites. Don’t give up until you get the best position in search engine and automatically your business popularity will rise up. Good luck!
